The real cost of Russia Ukraine War. The ongoing Russia Ukraine conflict has drastically increased uncertainty about the recovery of the global economy and there are concerns it may claim more lives than it has already done on the battlefield. With Russia being the world’ second natural gas producer, are the world leaders ready to move from a summer to a winter war?
20 July 2022
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Human casualties and global growth are set to take a significant hit as the Russia and Ukraine conflict continues to deepen with the West being the most exposed to economic failure.
Rigid sanctions aiming at restricting Russia’s energy exports will worsen the situation and bring the west to its knees. Experts predict commodities prices are set to escalate as war in Ukraine continues: making inflation sore even higher.
The United Nations estimates the total of people killed during the Russia and Ukraine war of 14,200–14,400. Meanwhile, according to financial experts predictions, war in Ukraine is to
cost the global economy more than $ 400 billion US dollars which equates to £300 billion .
The Bridge Magazine is very disappointed by a myriad of headlines and tweets focusing on demonstrating latest high tech artillery used on the battlefield, or on whether or not Russia or Ukraine was the country to blame.
Warmongers are making billions out of arms trades at human lives cost.
As a reminder, our editorial ALWAYS vividly condemn war. Whatever the reason. Our editorial SAYS NO TO WAR.
As previously quoted in one of our successful articles, latest figures on casualties of conflict from the Department of Peace and Conflict Research since the start of 36 major armed conflicts of recent years raises eyebrows:
according to Adam Roberts in regards to lives and statistics, “90% of modern war victims are civilians”.
Adam Roberts is president of the British Academy and Senior Research Fellow at The Centre for International Studies at Oxford University’s Department of Politics and International, and editor of the United Nations Security Council and War.
UK Consumers are already weakened by the price of gas which is expected to reach its peak whilst the cost of agricultural commodities and base metals are also projected to rise.
The ongoing Russia Ukraine war threatens to asphyxiate global energy and commodities markets further.
Sanctions will severely disrupt supply chains:
Russia is believed to be the world’s 3rd oil producer, the 2nd natural gas producer and among the top 5 producers of steel, nickel and aluminium. It is also the largest wheat exporter in the world. On the other hand, Ukraine is a key producer of corn, wheat, sunflowers and amongst the top ten producers of: barley, soya, rapeseed, sugar beet, to list a few.
Energy scarcity also means no heating thus a harsh winter. The critical questions are: how long will this carnage last? Could the West survive winter if the Russia Ukraine war persists?
The West mostly depends on Russia when it comes to oil and natural gas. Making Europe the most exposed to the consequences of the conflict. Finding an urgent replacement for all Russian natural gas supply to Europe is impossible in the short to medium span and current price levels will have a severe impact on inflation.
How far is too far? To which length are the world leaders ready to dare devil by dragging this to winter meaning more casualties?
The common denominator of wars irrespective of the winner or who is wrong or who is right, are the costs of human and economic losses to list a few.
The backlash of war, which some seem to ignore, is that it impedes on the emancipation of countries. War puts countries economic progress to a halt.
Funds are invested elsewhere-arms trade rather than on food, health, shelter, education and other necessities, whilst creating irreversible damage as human lives cannot be brought back: the cost/stakes of war are too high.
Economic aftermath of the Russia war
Higher commodity prices mean famine will last. Severe threat of long-lasting high inflation will dramatically increase the risks of deep recession and social unrest.
Certain sectors such as: automotive, transport or chemicals are more likely to suffer.
Latest statistics forecast that “Together with a total cut of Russian natural gas supply, this could cost at least 4 points of GDP, thereby leading EU GDP growth close to zero – more probably in negative territory – in 2022.”
Chemical, transport and automotive sectors will suffer the most
The crisis is severely impacting the automotive sector: fuel shortages, high commodity & raw material prices: metals, semiconductors, cobalt, lithium, magnesium…
Global scale impact of The Russia Ukraine war
No country will be spared by imported inflation and global trade disruption. It is rather naïve for all those who have taken social media by storm to claim it is a Russia/ Ukraine only war. The conflict affects the entire planet.
Below are the world economic consequences
Major supply disruptions
Higher inflation
The rise in commodity prices, energy prices
Severe slowdown of the European growth
The Bridge Magazine exhorts Human Rights Watch and the world leaders to call an urgent meeting for a treaty to cease fire for a common interest.
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